EURUSD | 11.12.2013

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EURUSD has been a pretty decent instrument to trade. After trading the full HWB on ECB rate cut at 1.329 we have a very clean series of longs develop.

We traded a full 50% longs @ 1.3436 and continued straight up. Notice last week before NFP's we have blown past the the -0.236 % targets of that long @1.36454.

This started a new extension with an anchor the prior high @ 1.3578 and this traded and held 61.8% perfectly on NFP's.

From, there on we have been in new extensions immediately.

 

After NFP's we immediately started as series of extensions. The prior high @ 1.367 became and anchor for a new extension to 1.372. This gave us an entry that traded on Monday. After hitting targets we immediately started new extensions with that now new prior high as an anchor @ 1.372 and this extension traded twice to targets and as visible hit targets yesterday and went lower.

Now there is the potential to have actually broken the series of extensions as visible by the dip under the 65% of same anchor new high (1.372 to 1.3794). However, considering the rejection so far we have to be vigilent of a potential liquidity spike as a cause rather than technical failure of the series. In the end no system is perfect, and I thnik this is more likely to be a liquidity spike than a failure of the extension. However, the important take here is if this extension has indeed failed we have our original extension from 1.358 high as a valid support level.

This will give us a buy level @ 1.3692 against ~ 1.366.